Trump and Xi's South Korea Meeting Paves Way for Trade Discussions

In a significant development, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, marking their first face-to-face interaction since 2019. The talks, held on October 30, 2025, were seen as a potential reset in U.S.-China relations, focusing on critical topics such as supply chains, tariffs, and the trade of rare earth elements.

The discussions led to an agreement where China would temporarily lift certain rare-earth export restrictions for a year. Considering that China processes approximately nine-tenths of the world's rare earth elements—essential for industries from electric vehicles to defense—this decision holds substantial weight. Despite the agreement, analysts view it as a tactical pause rather than a strategic overhaul, with implications extending to Central Asia and its emerging role in mineral supply chains.

Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is poised to become a key player in the global rare earth market. Kazakhstan has identified multiple promising mineral deposits, while Uzbekistan has signed significant agreements with the U.S. to enhance cooperation on critical minerals. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is keen on investing in Central Asia, although logistics and infrastructure projects are still in early stages.

The Trump-Xi meeting may temporarily ease tensions, but the strategic need for supply chain diversification remains strong. For Central Asian countries, balancing economic ambitions with geopolitical neutrality is crucial. Despite any perceived thaw in U.S.-China relations, the structural competition persists, emphasizing the importance of developing independent supply chains.

The upcoming C5+1 Leaders’ Summit in Washington on November 6 will be a critical test for U.S. diplomacy in the region. The summit aims to address issues like trade corridors, regulatory alignment, and energy logistics. Central Asian leaders will be looking for tangible commitments from the U.S., particularly in mid-stream infrastructure, to avoid becoming mere raw material suppliers.

There are concerns about how deepening cooperation on rare earths could affect geopolitical dynamics, particularly with potential backlash from Russia and China. The summit's outcomes could either enhance Central Asia's role in global supply chains or highlight the limitations of U.S. economic strategies in a complex international landscape.

As the C5+1 platform enters its tenth year, the challenge lies in transforming discussions into concrete actions. The coming days will determine whether the region can secure long-term partnerships that offer real investment and market access, or whether the dialogue will remain largely symbolic.