Asian Buyers Look to Kazakhstan as Short-Term Lifeline After Hormuz Tensions

South Korea and Japan are scrambling for new sources of refined fuels and crude oil after recent skirmishes around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a key trade artery. A two-week truce brokered by Pakistan has eased the immediate threat of fighting, but Iran’s continued ability to oversee traffic through the strait has pushed importers to pursue alternatives in Central Asia and the Gulf.

Seoul has moved quickly. Officials say roughly three-fifths of South Korea’s crude and just over half of its naphtha traditionally pass through Hormuz, and a high-level delegation has set out for Kazakhstan, Oman and Saudi Arabia to secure supplies. Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik is leading the mission as a special envoy, joined by ministry officials and executives from major energy companies. The team’s task is twofold: fill any near-term gaps and map out more reliable supply lines for industry and transport.

The government has already locked in a 24 million-barrel purchase from the United Arab Emirates, and shipments are arriving, but authorities warn that this won’t fully offset the risk while instability persists. Seoul is coordinating with private importers and logistics firms to manage inventories and delivery schedules until tankers can dock. Officials framed the effort as an urgent mix of diplomacy, commercial negotiation and logistics planning.

Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbons are getting renewed attention. The country hosts large fields, including Kashagan and Tengiz, and could partially substitute volumes from the Middle East. But moving that oil is neither simple nor cheap. Crude would need to cross the Caspian, then travel through the Caucasus or be shipped via the Black Sea, routes that add steps, cost and delay. Complicating matters, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry recently warned production may drop by 2 to 4 million metric tons by year’s end after damage to Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure and fires at Tengiz, meaning output is likely to fall short of the earlier 100.5 million-ton target for 2026. “Central Asian supplies can help, but they won’t instantly replace Gulf flows,” said an independent energy analyst in Almaty. “The bottlenecks are physical as much as political.”

Tokyo is also revisiting its sourcing. Japan gets more than nine-tenths of its oil from the Middle East and is weighing increased purchases from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, including projects involving the state-linked firm INPEX. Technical analysts note Caspian crude is generally compatible with Japanese refineries, which reduces the need for fuel upgrades. Still, alternate sea routes—through the Red Sea and the Mediterranean or around the Cape of Good Hope—stretch transit to roughly 25 to 55 days and raise freight and insurance costs.

Markets are already reacting. Jet fuel and diesel prices in Europe have climbed, and EU policymakers are debating emergency steps, such as delaying refinery overhauls, trimming grid levies and revisiting the crisis measures used in 2022. Industry voices say that even a partial shift away from Gulf shipping could spur investment in Trans-Caspian links and new pipeline capacity, but such projects carry long lead times and political hurdles, especially where routes cross or rely on Russian territory.

For now, the episode is prompting importers to diversify as much as practical while diplomatic talks between Tehran and Washington continue. Any meaningful reorientation of global supply chains will take time and capital; in the short run, consumers and refiners face higher costs and tighter inventories even as governments try to keep fuel moving.