Tajik President Returns From Beijing With Big Solar Deals and New Lines of Credit

During a three-day visit to Beijing, Tajikistan’s leader secured a string of investment agreements and a large financing package, even as questions mount about the bidders chosen to build the country’s burgeoning solar sector. Emomali Rahmon signed roughly 50 separate arrangements that officials say could bring in about $8 billion, and won an $800 million loan from the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — a sum roughly twice the bank’s prior total support for Dushanbe since it opened in 2016.

The flurry of announcements included several high-profile solar contracts unveiled since the start of the year, most notably a reported $1 billion plan for a plant with about 2 gigawatts of annual capacity awarded to a firm called Ruftob Ltd. Domestic observers note that Ruftob has little visible corporate footprint online. In January, authorities named Ayon Energy to oversee two 250-megawatt arrays, a deal worth roughly $250 million, and Ayon later signed a construction pact with state-linked OJSC TGEM to carry out the works.

Those moves mark a sharp pivot from Tajikistan’s long-standing emphasis on hydropower, symbolized by the Rogun dam project. International lenders have grown wary of Rogun’s finances: the World Bank delayed funding last year and asked for a business plan showing the dam could cover its own debt costs. Against that backdrop, Dushanbe has begun shopping for solar as a way to diversify its power mix, and officials have begun talks with Chinese contractors on a separate 500-megawatt installation in the northern Sughd region, with Ayon once again named as the local partner.

The scale of the China-linked commitments has geopolitical as well as economic implications. The AIIB loan boosts Beijing’s footprint in Tajikistan at a moment when the Asian Development Bank — backed chiefly by the U.S. and Japan — pledged up to $1.1 billion in assistance to the country earlier this year. Analysts say the competition among lenders could speed projects but also weaken oversight if procurement and technical reviews are rushed to accommodate political timetables.

Security concerns are another driver of deeper Sino-Tajik ties. Beijing has pressed for closer law-enforcement cooperation after several Chinese workers were killed near the Tajik-Afghan frontier in late 2025. A Chinese government statement issued after Rahmon’s meeting with Xi called for tighter collaboration to crack down on violent extremism and cross-border crime, signaling Beijing’s interest in protecting both personnel and investments.

Energy specialists and governance watchdogs interviewed for this report — speaking on background to discuss sensitive procurement issues — warned that awarding large contracts to little-known firms raises risks. They urged publicly released feasibility studies, independent technical audits and clearer disclosure of ownership for the named contractors, and cautioned that integrating large amounts of intermittent solar will require upgrades to transmission and balancing capacity. For now, Tajikistan appears to be chasing quick capital, and how well those deals translate into reliable, affordable power remains to be seen.