Climate Damage Could Swallow Up To More Than A Country’s Annual Output In Parts Of Central Asia

Central Asian economies face the prospect of catastrophic losses from climate hazards by 2080, with some nations potentially seeing damage that equals or exceeds their yearly gross output. The warning came this week at a CAREC technology forum from a senior researcher at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan, who said the region’s exposure to changing precipitation, melting ice and more intense heat will translate into heavy fiscal and social costs.

The researcher laid out country-by-country estimates showing the steepest toll in the highlands. Tajikistan could lose between four-fifths and roughly one and three-tenths of its GDP; Kyrgyzstan between seven-tenths and about 1.2 times its GDP; Kazakhstan between two-fifths and four-fifths; Uzbekistan between three-tenths and nine-twentieths; and Turkmenistan between one-fifth and three-fifths. Those figures reflect cumulative damage through the remainder of the century under expected warming scenarios, officials said.

Mountains amplify the danger, the researcher said, because shrinking glaciers and altered snowfall change river flows that both farms and hydropower systems rely on. Drought and soaring temperatures are already squeezing crop yields and grazing lands, cutting into rural incomes and energy production. "As water supplies and seasonal runoff pattern shift, the knock-on effects hit electricity and food supplies, and that feeds straight into national budgets," the researcher told attendees.

Experts at the forum and independent analysts urged a mix of repairs and investments: overhauling irrigation networks, shifting to crops that tolerate heat and water stress, and growing clean energy capacity where possible. They stressed that the price of inaction will be paid by households and public finances alike. The World Bank has previously flagged that natural disasters are inflicting substantial economic damage across Central Asia and that reconstruction leaves large funding shortfalls; in Tajikistan, that financing gap has been estimated at as much as $1.5 billion after major calamities.

Regional planners and economists say closing those gaps will require new sources of long-term finance, better disaster risk insurance and stronger cooperation on shared rivers and basins.

Without coordinated investment and policy reform, local communities could face decades of mounting losses even as the cost to adapt rises.