China Sees Uneven Trade With Central Asia; Kyrgyzstan’s Figures Plummet

Beijing’s customs agency reported a modest overall rise in commerce with Central Asia in the first half of 2026, but the gains were concentrated in a few states while others posted sharp declines.

China’s total trade with the five Central Asian republics reached $52.94 billion in the first six months of the year, an increase of roughly one-fifteenth from the same period in 2025, according to data released by Beijing’s General Administration of Customs. The aggregate balance remained tilted toward China: exports from the PRC to the region stood at about $35 billion, while imports into China were near $18 billion — a gap of about two-to-one.

The most striking anomaly was Kyrgyzstan, where bilateral turnover dropped from $14.25 billion to $9.7 billion, a fall of about one-third. Kyrgyz shipments to China collapsed to roughly $75 million in H1 2026 after exceeding $3.8 billion a year earlier. Neither Bishkek nor Beijing has provided a clear account of what drove the earlier surge or the recent retreat. Trade-watchers say the erratic pattern is consistent with previous allegations that the country has been used as a corridor for goods intended for Russia, sometimes settled in kind with precious commodities — a practice that can create sudden, large swings in recorded flows.

Uzbekistan posted the strongest expansion, with trade rising by nearly one-third to about $8.87 billion. China’s sales to Uzbekistan climbed to $7.65 billion, while purchases from Tashkent increased but remained small at approximately $1.22 billion. An economist who follows the region said Uzbekistan’s reforms and infrastructure agreements with Chinese firms have helped boost activity, though the imbalance reflects continued dependence on imported machinery and consumer products.

Kazakhstan also registered robust growth, up roughly one-quarter to $27.2 billion. Unlike Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan’s trade with China showed greater reciprocity: exports to China jumped from about $7.8 billion to $12.2 billion, narrowing the deficit as Chinese shipments to Astana edged higher. Analysts note that Kazakhstan’s exports of raw materials and energy-related goods have been a key factor in that rebound.

Smaller neighbors showed mixed outcomes. Tajikistan’s exchanges with China rose by about one-seventh to $2.35 billion, with Beijing continuing to sell far more than it buys. Turkmenistan saw a marginal dip of about one percent to $4.82 billion but remained the only Central Asian state running a surplus with China, reflecting its role as a supplier of natural gas even as its exports to the PRC have eased.

Observers say the data underscore two realities: China remains the dominant trade partner across Central Asia, and official figures still leave room for questions about transparency and re-export activity. For governments and companies in the region, the challenge will be strengthening customs oversight and reporting to reduce volatility and potential exposure to sanctions or enforcement actions.