China Wins Steep Break On Russian Gas As It Expands Ties Across Central Asia

China Is Paying Far Less For Power Of Siberia Gas Than Other Buyers, While Beijing Deepens Economic and Digital Links With Neighbors

Newly released Russian parliamentary documents show Beijing is buying gas delivered through the Power of Siberia pipeline at roughly $248 per thousand cubic meters, far below the up-to-$562 price paid by some other foreign purchasers. That gap — about five-ninths less than the highest foreign price — highlights Moscow’s growing fiscal reliance on Chinese energy purchases as Western demand and sanctions squeeze its traditional markets. Kremlin officials, according to the filings, aim to narrow that price gap over time, but for now Beijing’s purchases provide a vital source of hard currency for Russia.

Analysts say the discount appears tied to broader political alignment and to China’s strategic willingness to secure long-term supplies. An independent estimate from a Russia-focused think tank found China pays up to $60 more per thousand cubic meters for Turkmen gas than the price Moscow is receiving for supplies to China, underscoring the complexity of regional energy deals. Talks on a proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline have reportedly stalled over money matters, leaving Moscow with large Siberian reserves and fewer customers. “With the European market largely closed, Moscow’s bargaining power has diminished and buyers can press for better terms,” said Elena Morozova, an energy researcher who studies Eurasian supply chains.

Beijing is also deepening non-energy ties across Central Asia. Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan Oct. 17-19, signing a string of memoranda and backing an industrial cluster for non-ferrous metallurgy in Tajikistan’s Sughd region. At the same time, a major Chinese policy institute convened regional experts in Bishkek and, with Uzbek counterparts, in Tashkent to map out joint events and policy priorities for 2027, including cooperation on artificial intelligence and digital transformation. Those forums are part of a broader push by Beijing to shape technical and governance projects across the five Central Asian republics.

In Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev kicked off work on a planned $1.8 billion copper smelter at the Aktogay deposit, a project that state and company announcements say could produce about 300,000 tons of copper cathode a year, create more than 1,000 jobs and begin output around 2030. Yet a Chinese corporate filing shows the partner’s local unit has only signed a limited preparatory contract worth roughly 4.52 billion tenge (about $10 million); a full construction deal remains unsigned. KAZ Minerals and the Chinese partner also agreed to a nonbinding plan to cooperate on geological exploration using remote sensing and three-dimensional modeling. Separately, Kazakhstan’s national investment vehicle has a memorandum with a Chinese materials firm for a roughly $1 billion push to expand the Kuryk port on the Caspian, and 25 Kazakh water specialists are training in China on irrigation and digital water management.

Tensions and security cooperation have not been absent from the relationship. Kazakhstan’s security service said it detained 13 Chinese nationals accused of running an international online fraud operation and transferred them to Chinese custody after coordinating with Beijing. Nur-Sultan also accepted observer status in a China-led Alliance for Cultural Heritage in Asia, a move some diplomats see as aimed at widening cultural ties and influence, though no concrete funding or projects were announced.

Elsewhere in the region, Uzbekistan hosted talks with a Chinese municipal delegation that produced agreements on logistics, construction and technology cooperation, and Uzbekneftegaz opened discussions with China National Petroleum Corp. on diversifying fuel supplies and potentially hosting a permanent CNPC office in Tashkent. In Tajikistan, Tajiktelecom and China Mobile switched on a 1,010-kilometer fiber link that connects Dushanbe to Beijing-capable lines, starting with about 1 terabit per second capacity and slated to expand toward 10 terabits. Dushanbe also signed a memorandum to study hydropower options on the Obihingou River, a Soviet-era estimate of which suggested about 2.6 gigawatts of potential generation. In Ashgabat, a Shanxi province trade forum yielded a couple of small commercial contracts.

Taken together, the energy discounts and a flurry of investment and technical ties show Beijing leveraging its market to secure influence across Eurasia. “For Central Asian capitals, Chinese finance and technology offer fast gains, but they often come with strings that reshape long-term options,” said Arman Sadykov, a regional policy analyst. Governments in the region will have to weigh immediate economic benefits against political and strategic costs as Moscow’s energy revenues and negotiating posture continue to shift.