Turkey Revives Push For Caspian Gas As Turkmenistan Looks East

Turkey is again pressing for a pipeline under the Caspian Sea to make up for lost supplies from Iran, but Turkmenistan’s government continues to cultivate deep energy ties with Beijing, leaving Ankara’s ambitions uncertain.

Speaking at an energy forum on April 24, Turkey’s energy minister renewed a call for immediate international talks on building a subsea link to bring Turkmen gas across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, then onward through Turkey into Europe. The appeal comes amid a sharp jump in global gas prices tied to unrest in the Persian Gulf, which has pushed Turkish import bills sharply higher and sharpened Ankara’s urgency to diversify suppliers.

Turkey relies on more than four-fifths of its gas from foreign sources, and prices have climbed by roughly seven-tenths over the course of this year. Compounding the squeeze, deliveries from Iran — historically about one-sixth of Turkey’s needs — halted in March after the Gulf conflict disrupted flows. A short-lived swap arrangement that routed Turkmen volumes to Turkey via Iran delivered about 1.3 billion cubic meters through the end of last year but collapsed after only a few months when Washington broadened sanctions to cover such transactions. Officials in Ankara had hoped that the temporary deal might be raised toward 3 billion cubic meters in 2026, but with sanctions and questions about the integrity of Iran’s pipeline network, that option looks fragile.

A permanent conduit beneath the sea would offer a clearer, long-term alternative. Proposals for a Caspian crossing have circulated since the late 1990s, but they never advanced because Europe and Turkey found cheaper supplies elsewhere and because transit states and Turkmenistan itself were reluctant to commit. The European Union’s plan to eliminate remaining Russian pipeline purchases by November 2027 has revived interest, yet Baku’s own output has not grown as expected and its main export artery is running at about half of its maximum capacity. That combination presents a potential window for Turkmenistan to expand sales to Europe — if political, legal and commercial obstacles can be overcome.

Yet building an undersea link is expensive and politically delicate. Estimates put the bill at roughly $12 billion for the roughly 300-kilometer stretch under the Caspian, and the route would cross waters bordered by Iran and Russia — states that have clear strategic reasons to be wary of a new supply route bypassing their influence. Three years ago Baku said it could permit Turkmen transit provided it did not use Azerbaijan’s existing Southern Gas Corridor infrastructure, and it made clear it would not underwrite new construction. That stance, alongside investor nerves over sanctions risk and regional instability, leaves questions about who would accept construction and market risk.

While Ankara pushes, Ashgabat has steadily deepened its energy relationship with Beijing. Turkmen state and Chinese firms are marking two decades of cooperation; since 2009 Turkmen exports to China amount to several hundred billion cubic meters, and Chinese companies are building further gas-field developments intended largely to feed that market. In March, Turkmenistan’s top leader traveled to Beijing where leaders agreed to broaden energy and economic cooperation. China National Petroleum Corp. recently won a contract to develop a major phase of the giant Galkynysh field, a project projected to deliver about 10 billion cubic meters a year — volumes slated for export to China.

Ankara’s options now look constrained by both geopolitics and finance. “Turkey can press for a Caspian link, but it will need partners willing to absorb political risk and provide capital,” said an Ankara-based energy analyst. “Meanwhile, Turkmenistan gets reliable, long-term revenue from China with fewer geopolitical strings attached.” That assessment suggests that unless Ashgabat signals a stronger commitment to Europe-bound exports or Western backers move to underwrite the venture, Turkish hopes for a direct, sizable Turkmen supply may remain aspirational.